AUSTRALIA'S growth could slow in 2014 and deliver headaches for business as commodity price falls put a brake on mining construction projects.
Big mining projects that were approved a few years ago will drive output gains in the next two years, but the next round of project approvals will be a "pale shadow of the last lot", a Deloitte Access Economics report says.
"The strong bit of Australia's 'two speed economy' won't be as strong in a couple of years," the Business Outlook said.
Rising world prices for iron ore and coal had underwritten a lot of the gains in Australian incomes in the past decade, but those prices had fallen through 2012.
"There's a risk of a pothole in growth in 2014-15 as the surge in mining construction finishes before rising gas export volumes hit their straps," the report said.
"That's not the end of the world, but it suggests the difficult business environment of the last couple of years won't disappear any time soon."
A supply surge in commodities coincided with weaker demand from China, leading to faster than expected price falls.
The report also warned of complacency around the consensus view of a relatively rapid rebound in China and in its insatiable demand for commodities.
Still, Deloitte found there was a lot of import spending locked in to feed into massive resource construction spending this financial year and next.
But the same was not true of exports.
The study showed unemployment remained low, despite anaemic job growth, partly because workers have been discouraged by weak job gains.
"More Australians are retiring or otherwise staying out of the job hunt," it said.
"That buffer was only a respite and we see unemployment drifting up as governments and even the mining sector tighten their belts."
Deloitte predicts unemployment will top out in this cycle at 5.5 per cent.
Inflation prospects were less worrying, but a surge of "funny money" from the central banks underlined continuing financial fragility around the globe.
While fears for Europe had faded, concerns about China had intensified.
"Even if the US dodges the big bullet of the 'fiscal cliff', there's still going to be some fiscal headwinds in the US in 2013," the report said.
The global recovery would continue, but it would be dogged by difficulties that would leave global growth below trend in 2012 and 2013.
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