THE US military is developing a new military doctrine but it's not in Australia's interests to openly sign on to it because of the message it would send China, a new study says.
Air-Sea Battle is a new US plan to fight and defeat an advanced adversary, which the US has consistently denied means China.
In a new Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) paper, senior analyst Benjamin Schreer said Australian endorsement of Air-Sea Battle would risk making an enemy of the Chinese military just when Australia was seeking to deepen the friendship.
Dr Schreer said Australia had an interest in contributing to the US military rebalance in the Asian region, and hosting of US training in the Northern Territory had displayed the commitment to the ANZUS alliance.
"Fully embracing the logic behind Air-Sea Battle or developing specific military capabilities to underpin the concept's implementation are so far not in Australia's interests," he said.
"Openly signing up for the concept would send a strong political message to China that the ADF is now actively planning and equipping for a potential war with the PLA (People's Liberation Army)."
As China has built up its military, it has developed a strategy to deny US forces the ability to operate in the Taiwan Strait region, South China Sea and adjacent Pacific Ocean.
The Chinese strategy includes a significant submarine force and missiles designed to hit US aircraft carriers.
In response, the US has developed Air-Sea Battle. That's been compared with the Air-Land doctrine, developed to fight the numerically superior Warsaw Pact during the Cold War.
The full version remains classified but Air-Sea envisages withstanding an initial assault, then exploiting US superiority in stealth aircraft and submarines to attack surveillance and communications networks to achieve air superiority.
Dr Schreer said there were only a few scenarios which could result in use of Air-Sea Battle, including invasion of Taiwan or a pre-emptive attack on US forces.
If that occurred, Australia would likely play a role, although not necessarily on the front line.
The US could make extensive use of Australian bases. Australian forces could also conduct peripheral operations such as intercepting Chinese merchant ships in a blockade of the Straits of Malacca.
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